To forecast the Alito vote we use two-dimensional DW-NOMINATE coordinates for the 108th Senate. Coordinates for the newly elected Senators (Salazar (D-CO), Martinez (R-FL), Isakson (R-GA), Obama (D-IL), Vitter (R-LA), Burr (R-NC), Coburn (R-OK), DeMint (R-SC), Thune (R-SD)) were obtained by running W-NOMINATE on the combined roll matrix for the 108th Senate and roll calls for the 109th through the end of July. The 91 Senators who served in both the 108th and 109th were used in a simple OLS to obtain the mapping of the W-NOMINATE coordinates into the DW-NOMINATE 108th coordinates. These are the coordinates shown in the graph below. Newly appointed Senator Menendez (D-NJ) is assigned his DW-NOMINATE coordinates from the 108th House. (Note that we show the 2nd dimension unweighted for purposes of clarity!)

Below are the positions of the Judiciary Committee members and those Senators who either announced on or before 20 January 2006.

MONTANA

D

BAUCUS

NO

ILLINOI

D

DURBIN

NO

CALIFOR

D

FEINSTEIN

NO

IOWA

D

HARKIN

NO

MASSACH

D

KENNEDY ED

NO

VERMONT

D

LEAHY

NO

MARYLAN

D

MIKULSKI

NO

COLORAD

D

SALAZAR

NO

OREGON

D

WYDEN

NO

NEBRASK

D

NELSON BEN

YES

COLORAD

R

ALLARD

YES

GEORGIA

R

CHAMBLISS

YES

MINNESO

R

COLEMAN

YES

OHIO

R

DEWINE

YES

NEVADA

R

ENSIGN

YES

WYOMING

R

ENZI

YES

TENNESS

R

FRIST

YES

NEBRASK

R

HAGEL

YES

PENNSYL

R

SANTORUM

YES

ALABAMA

R

SESSIONS

YES

WYOMING

R

THOMAS

YES

SOUTH D

R

THUNE

YES

PENNSYL

R

SPECTER

YES

NEW HAM

R

GREGG

YES

NEW HAM

R

SUNUNU

YES



Below are the positions of the Judiciary Committee members and those Senators who announced after January 20, as of 26 January 2006.

DELAWAR

D

BIDEN

NO

CALIFOR

D

BOXER

NO

NEW YOR

D

CLINTON

NO

CONNECT

D

DODD

NO

WISCONS

D

FEINGOLD

NO

MASSACH

D

KERRY JOHN

NO

WISCONS

D

KOHL

NO

WASHING

D

MURRAY

NO

FLORIDA

D

NELSON

NO

ILLINOI

D

OBAMA

NO

RHODE I

D

REED

NO

NEVADA

D

REID

NO

NEW YOR

D

SCHUMER

NO

MICHIGA

D

STABENOW

NO

INDIANA

R

LUGAR

YES

SOUTH D

D

JOHNSON

YES

VIRGINI

R

ALLEN

YES

UTAH

R

BENNETT

YES

MISSOUR

R

BOND

YES

KANSAS

R

BROWNBACK

YES

KENTUCK

R

BUNNING

YES

MONTANA

R

BURNS

YES

NORTH C

R

BURR

YES

OKLAHOM

R

COBURN

YES

MISSISS

R

COCHRAN

YES

TEXAS

R

CORNYN

YES

IDAHO

R

CRAIG

YES

IDAHO

R

CRAPO

YES

SOUTH C

R

DEMINT

YES

NORTH C

R

DOLE

YES

NEW MEX

R

DOMENICI

YES

SOUTH C

R

GRAHAM

YES

IOWA

R

GRASSLEY

YES

UTAH

R

HATCH

YES

TEXAS

R

HUTCHISON

YES

OKLAHOM

R

INHOFE

YES

GEORGIA

R

ISAKSON

YES

ARIZONA

R

KYL

YES

MISSISS

R

LOTT

YES

FLORIDA

R

MARTINEZ

YES

ARIZONA

R

MCCAIN

YES

KENTUCK

R

MCCONNELL

YES

ALASKA

R

MURKOWSKI

YES

KANSAS

R

ROBERTS

YES

ALABAMA

R

SHELBY

YES

OREGON

R

SMITH GORD

YES

MISSOUR

R

TALENT

YES

LOUISIA

R

VITTER

YES

OHIO

R

VOINOVICH

YES

VIRGINI

R

WARNER

YES



Announced after January 26

VERMONT

I

JEFFORDS

NO

MARYLAN

D

SARBANES

NO

ARKANSA

D

PRYOR

NO

ARKANSA

D

LINCOLN

NO

CONNECT

D

LIEBERMAN

NO

MICHIGA

D

LEVIN  CARL

NO

HAWAII

D

INOUYE

NO

DELAWAR

D

CARPER

NO

NEW MEX

D

BINGAMAN

NO

HAWAII

D

AKAKA

NO

MINNESO

D

DAYTON

NO

ALASKA

R

STEVENS

YES

MAINE

R

COLLINS

YES

TENNESS

R

ALEXANDER

YES

WEST VI

D

BYRD  ROBER

YES

NORTH D

D

CONRAD

YES